A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
